Assessing the Panthers trade deadline winger options

By Matt Lichtenstadter

At this point in 2023, no one could tell what the Florida Panthers trade deadline plans actually were. They were hovering around the wild card spots but a run to getting one didn’t seem likely. While they didn’t have much to sell, they felt a lot more like sellers than buyers. In the end they made no moves at all, and the rest is history. There’s no doubt about their playoff spot now, so their focus has turned to the trade deadline. While they are as deep as they’ve been in years, they could still use an upgrade out on the wing, especially in their middle six. They’ve scored 167 goals, and their top six forwards have scored 113 of them. With scoring depth is so critical in the playoffs, who can the Panthers target to fill this one last hole as they make another Cup charge?

All stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck as of the games on February 12th.

The Big Fish

Jake Guentzel (PIT): 49 GP, 22 G, 29 A, 56.15 xGF% (NST), $6M AAV

It’s hard to imagine the Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin Penguins as sellers, but as they trip over their shoelaces outside the wild card spots, talk about Guentzel’s future has heated up. Kyle Dubas may seriously flip him at the deadline to replenish a bare cupboard, and if he does, the Panthers are certainly going to be interested. If they somehow managed to get him, Florida would unquestionably have the deepest group of top nine forwards in the league. Most of the finishing winger talk centers around someone for Anton Lundell’s line, but Guentzel is almost certainly too good for just that, even if he wouldn’t be spending much time on PP1. Guentzel is also finishing 6.4 goals below expected according to MoneyPuck, so you could even call him unlucky too! If Bill Zito wanted to go all in again, this is the player he’d go all in for.

Of course, it’s not quite that simple. Elliotte Friedman has reported that Kyle Dubas would want in essence the Claude Giroux package from 2022 in return for Guentzel, i.e. a high level prospect/roster player and a first round pick at minimum. While the 2022 Panthers had all of that, the 2024 Panthers do not. Said roster player/prospect is probably Mackie Samoskevich, and he’s their top prospect depending on how you define Spencer Knight. In future seasons, they will need cost controlled young players, some on ELC’s, to backfill the roster, and Samoskevich is primed for that. Giving him up for a pure rental, even if it’s the top rental on the market, is a risk. How Zito can compensate for the lack of high end draft picks he has is another question, especially since the Panthers also have a thin prospect pool. While correlation doesn’t equal causation, Zito’s all in year went far worse in the playoffs than his stand pat and do nothing year, and if he has buyer’s remorse for the 2022 gambles, no one would blame him.

Zito is nothing if not bold, and nothing would be bolder than adding Guentzel for another furious playoff charge. It might not be the modal outcome, but Bill Zito has made his Panthers great by taking a bunch of big swings, and this would be another.

Slightly smaller fish

Vladimir Tarasenko (OTT): 46 GP, 14 G, 20 A, 44.82 xGF% (NST), $5M AAV

While the Ottawa Senators are having another terrible season, Vladimir Tarasenko is doing a bit better than you’d expect, at least in his counting stats. Sure, the Senators have been better when he’s off the ice 5v5 than when he’s on (-6.2% relative xGF% according to MoneyPuck), he’s not shooting as much and he’s struggling pretty badly in his own zone, but how much of that is Ottawa and how much of that is Tarasenko? It might be difficult to break out the signal from the noise. He could definitely find a role playing with any of Florida’s top three centers, could be covered up defensively playing with any of them, and has better finishing talent than either Evan Rodrigues or most anyone else Paul Maurice has rotated with Lundell and Luostarinen. He’d give PP2 a little extra pop as well.

He’d cost quite a bit less than Jake Guentzel and the Senators are going to be more than willing to move him on to get a draft pick or two. Since the Panthers have managed their cap so well, they wouldn’t need to ask Ottawa to retain much salary to get the deal done. Obviously the ceiling on a Tarasenko acquisition is lower than it would be for a Guentzel one, but with the Panthers already humming along, they might not need to make a huge swing to get the upgrade on the wing they’re in the market for. There’s always a fear that someone with Tarasenko’s mileage and injury history could see their play drop off a cliff quick, and there are signs that such a fall might be starting as he leads the Senators in goals scored above expected at all situations with those ugly defensive numbers. But if the Panthers want more of a discount option at the deadline, no one should be surprised if these two parties get linked more in the weeks to come.

Jordan Eberle (SEA): 48 GP, 9 G, 20 A, 53.89 xGF% (NST), $5.5M AAV

Even though the Kraken had a very long winning streak earlier in the season, it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to recapture their 2022-23 magic this year (or that shooting percentage). Jordan Eberle therefore becomes their most attractive pending UFA they’d look to flip as they restock for 2024-25. While he’s 33 and might not have his previous fastball, look under the hood and you’ll find a player who still helps drive play and definitely has something to give to a contender.

His counting stats aren’t great, but he’s scored 3.6 goals below expected according to MoneyPuck and he always helps drive play on whatever line he’s on. That isn’t an issue for the Panthers top two lines, but for Lundell and Luostarinen, having a play driver wouldn’t be a bad idea considering those two have more offensive potential to unlock while not sacrificing much defensively. He might not be an A+ finisher but adding him to the mix gives Paul Maurice the potential to try different line combinations at different spots, even if he doesn’t want to break up his established pairs for each line.

He might not be exactly what the Panthers need because of that finishing, but his skills could help unlock that somewhere else and give them even more play driving nous, and you can never have enough of that.

Arthur Kaliev (LA): 38 GP, 6 G, 8 A, 59.98 xGF% (NST), $894K AAV

If Todd McLellan was still the Kings bench boss, the Arthur Kaliev trade rumors might have gotten hotter and hotter. He didn’t play in Jim Hiller’s first game as Kings head coach and has seemingly been in the dog house all year despite most of his numbers coming out fairly decent. Kaliev feels like a fairly left field option compared to some other veteran names on the board, including the two mentioned above, and he certainly won’t have the same instant impact on the ice and in name value. So why bring him up?

When the Panthers acquired Brandon Montour and Sam Bennett in 2021, they acquired two players who were clearly out of favor with their old teams but had identifiable talent that fit in to what Bill Zito was looking for. Kaliev has a ton of offensive potential that hasn’t been seen in the Kings system (as have many young players who struggled to make the leap, so to speak), and if the Panthers need young, cost controlled players to fill out their roster when others will get big raises, Kaliev can easily be one of them. He’s definitely leaving offense on the table in LA right now and in Florida could easily be given a slightly elevated role to unlock that. Your shot doesn’t vanish this quick if you have one.

Bill Zito has made a living in finding players in the exact position Kaliev is in right now and turning them into something greater, even if many of them were older. His cap hit is obviously small and the Kings probably wouldn’t demand much in return for him. While it feels like this move is fairly unlikely, particularly since Mackie Samoskevich has a similar profile right now, it’s never a bad idea to have more good young players in your system, especially those you can buy low on like this.

Honorable mentions: Alex Barabanov (SJ), Morgan Frost (PHI), Anthony Mantha (WSH)

Some sentimental favorites

Frank Vatrano (ANA): 51 GP, 16 G, 22 A, 46.56 xGF% (NST), $3.7M AAV (1 yr remaining)

It’s funny how some of the more attractive possible trade deadline options are all former Panthers this year, and Frank Vatrano is one of them. There’s no need to break down his game much since it hasn’t changed much since his Panthers days: he’s a speedy winger who sacrifices defense and play driving ability to use his world class shot. He’s racked up good counting stats this season doing just that (scoring 6.1 goals above expected), while his underlying numbers are a touch better playing on a Ducks team which is far less of a black hole than last year.

The 2022 version of Frank Vatrano was surplus to the Panthers requirements, yet the 2024 version feels in many ways like exactly what this team needs: a plus finishing winger. But there are drawbacks. He’s one of two players on this list under contract next year at a high AAV, and if he starts losing his shooting touch at all, he doesn’t offer much elsewhere particularly since he won’t see PP1 minutes in Florida. Whether he wants to come back to Florida is also a reasonable question to ask. He doesn’t feel like a Bill Zito player, leave alone a Paul Maurice player, but that one plus skill is exactly what his old team might need right now, even if he might not be the best option to provide it.

Anthony Duclair (SJ): 46 GP, 9 G, 8 A, 42.18 xGF% (NST), $3M AAV

When the Panthers flipped Duclair to the Sharks in July, it felt inevitable that he’d become a valuable trade deadline target and so he is, even if his season has been pretty difficult for one of the worst teams in the league. He’s still Anthony Duclair in San Jose, but a diminished version of his prime 2021-22 Panthers self. Recovering from an achilles tear is always difficult and his brief 2023 stint including the playoffs showed that. If Bill Zito suddenly had a change of heart and wanted to bring him back, there wouldn’t be many surprises in the player he’s acquiring, for better or for worse. There are better play drivers and finishers out there than the current version of Duclair, but in terms of sentimental returns, there aren’t any better. Sentiment doesn’t win the Stanley Cup though.

Nick Bjugstad (ARZ): 51 GP, 10 G, 17 A, 49.70 xGF% (NST), $2.1M AAV (1 year remaining)

At the request of a certain founder of the Substack you are reading, what about a more deep cut Panthers return? If Dimitry Kulikov can come back, why not Nick Bjugstad? He’s not the player Dale Tallon thought he was drafting, but he turned out to be a decent trade deadline rental for the Oilers last year and is having a quietly solid season with the Coyotes, who are starting to fall out of playoff contention.

Incredibly, he’s scoring 4.6 goals below expected for the Coyotes this season and starting nearly a quarter of his shifts in the defensive zone! His defensive results aren’t very good but some of that could be masked if he plays in this current Panthers machine. He’s not someone who would be playing anywhere other than with Lundell and Luostarinen most likely, so getting him for versatility purposes is likely out, and he’s a player Paul Maurice probably isn’t going to use on special teams either. But it seems as if there’s some offense here that the Panthers could use in a depth role, and he certainly wouldn’t cost a ton to acquire. Unlikely return? Probably. Would it be a bad idea? There are worse ones out there.

The future? The present?

Mackie Samoskevich: 7 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 43.58 xGF% (NST) & 37 GP, 12 G, 17 A (CLT)

The same WhyHockey founder and podcast co-host mentioned above has recently described Samoskevich as the Panthers 10th top nine forward, which is perfect, no notes. Samoskevich has gotten a couple of looks and has looked lively, even if he’s struggled to keep up with the pace of the NHL game at times. Thankfully, Paul Maurice has kept him away from fourth line duties and tried him with Lundell/Luostarinen and even Sasha Barkov. It’s clear that he’s not quite ready for the full rigors of top nine minutes yet, but he might also be a bit too good to stay with the Checkers too. It’s a frustrating no man’s land for Mackie, and playing in Charlotte is way better than being scratched in Florida, but this should be his role at some point soon if he keeps developing (that is if he’s not traded first). It doesn’t seem like that some point soon will be the spring, though.

Did I miss any possible targets? Tell me @MattsMusings1 on Twitter or Bluesky how badly I did.