Mining Value from This Season
There is not much in-season magic for fans to expect at this point. Maurice is striking a patient tone and stance in post games. Bill Zito is backing his coach and roster choices, signaling to ride it out.
The answer, this season, will likely have to come from the locker room. They either will make the playoffs, or they won’t. The adversity they craved, they received. The message inside the organization most likely is that by surviving this tough stretch, they will win in future.
Maybe Florida will see great rewards from this experience. We would all prefer it. At the same time, who knows what Ownership reactions await us if playoffs are missed and Florida finishes lockstep with Buffalo and Montreal.
Zito does not have many bullets in his chamber to affect change. The few bullets he does have at his disposal midseason, are not ones that help the playoff push.
Unless playoffs are guaranteed close to the March 3rd trade deadline, Whyhockey recommends leveraging one of the moves Zito can do – trading Radko Gudas.
It seems counter productive. Florida needs defenders and Gudas would be helpful to keep. But there is logic here.
Gudas is on an expiring contract and turns 33 in June before his next deal. I do not see Gudas returning to Florida. It makes sense to get assets, or value, back on an asset you otherwise will lose for nothing.
It is possible, of course. Gudas may sign a sub $2million cap hit one year deal because he does not want to move.
Chiarot netted an unprotected 1st round pick, a B/B- Center prospect, and a 4th round pick. Why couldn’t Gudas bring Florida a first round pick or a defensive prospect? Is Chiarot even better than Gudas?
A first could help move Bob in the summer. Or help soften the blow of losing so many first round picks, and provide a needed quality prospect.
Would New Jersey want to improve upon their 6th D Brendan Smith and toughen up in exchange for Topias Vilen? How about Detroit for Albert Johansson or Eemil Viro? Things that need exploring now through March.
Washington and Pittsburgh will continue to add at the deadline. Kraken may want help if they stay in playoff standing.
A side benefit of a Gudas trade, if it happens sooner rather than later, is that it might give flexibility for Duclair to come back. It would be preferable to a forced Bennett or Duclair trade should Patric Hornqvist come back.
These are players that are expected to provide value next year and are affordable under next year’s cap situation. You don’t want to be backed into giving one up.
The Core
After the offseason shake-up and the current season trajectory, it is warranted to re-assess and align the core.
For this purpose the core is defined as players it makes little sense to move. If gone, Florida would have to immediately replace them at the same time as getting enough surplus value to make it worth moving them.
Matthew Tkachuk is the most untouchable. The fact that Zito traded ‘Huberdeau and Earth’ less than a year ago for the player in addition to his over a point per game performance is enough to guarantee that.
Sasha Barkov is pretty much untouchable. Like Tkachuk, Barkov is a top player in the league and in his prime. Unless the return is the #1 pick and the plan is to move the cup window 3+ years down the line, it is not worth it.
Of course, unless Montreal or Detroit snags first overall, Barkov would not waive his No Trade Clause to go to the type of team who would be picking first overall. A swap for Auston Matthews is another totally made up not happening scenario you could get me to wonder about. That’s about it.
Anton Lundell is the next part of the core. Championships are won by center depth - a vital part of both the defense and offense. Lundell will be one of the most underrated centers in his prime and constantly over performs expectations of his age.
Gustav Forsling is a player as safe as Lundell. What defenseman could give more valuable minutes at that cap hit ($2.66m)?
He is the best left shot defenseman on the roster and the only defenseman to consistently show good defensive awareness while playing in Florida’s more mobile and up-ice system.
Shipping out Carter Verhaeghe would be silly. Last year in the playoffs and this year through bad shooting luck and chance creation, Swaggy’s goals were the only things keeping them alive. I would be blown away if he got traded. It would certainly signal a change of plans.
Aaron Ekblad is likely safe. The one reason for contemplation is the amount of devastating injuries he has accrued and their effects. Will he spend a period of a few months or seasons getting back to his best? Tough to answer.
Should Florida trade Ekblad to Detroit for Simon Edvinsson? There are scenarios Florida could improve moving Ekblad, though they are unlikely to materialize.
Ekblad is a fantastic defenseman. His cap hit is worth it when healthy and not an issue when not. #5 could still be part of the answer.
I see Ekblad having a similar career to Shea Weber. He plays a similar game contributing with goals, and leading from the back end. There is a lot of wear and tear. Ultimately though, it is better to have him on your team than be in search of an Ekblad.
Weber’s sheer perseverance and skill drove Montreal to a cup. Ekblad is nowhere near that broken or old.
The goal is not to trade him but must be to get a complimentary #1 defenseman that allows him to focus on health and playing within his strengths.
But if Huberdeau and Weegar can be moved in the same deal, Ekblad can be traded too.
Spencer Knight falls in line with Ekblad. In fact, he is probably safer due to the importance of his position and his youth. Florida was quick to extend him before the season. They clearly are “All In” on Knight. That’s fine.
But given how voodoo goalies are, the abundance of good goalies in today’s game, and the ability of Florida to identify goalie prospects like Levi, Knight, and Gerasimyuk, I wouldn’t rule out trading Knight in the right scenario.
There are still unknowns in his game, like adjusting to NHL shots and getting beat clean less, especially from over 30 feet out. The more those are ironed out this season, the more untouchable he becomes.
For a similar reason to Forsling, Brandon Montour is likely safe. He is exceptionally athletic and excels when challenged. He is competitive on the defensive side of things. For $3.5m cap hit, I’d spend this and next season trying to increase his defensive reads and see if he is worth an extension.
On the other hand, his value will never be higher and that warrants exploring.
Eetu Luostrainen is someone I would also add to this list. He has been the most consistent player for Florida this year. He is under 25 currently plays wing and center in the Top 9 and only carries a $1.5m cap hit next season.
I would make sure to avoid arbitration down the line and try to keep Luo in Florida. The Center depth is Florida biggest advantage to winning a cup. Tkachuk their second.
The core duo of Barkov and Tkachuk is too good to consider a full rebuild. A rebuild aims to get to a duo up front like this. However, everything else and everyone else must be on the table.
Owner Vinny Viola and the Florida Panthers must ride the coattails of this core to commercial and on-ice success.
How many NHL teams would trade places for Barkov’s complete game and work ethic, Tkachuk’s goals and personality, the location, tax situation, and all the other parts of a winner there? 20 teams? More?