Pre World Juniors 2023 prospect rankings and a look at the Panthers draft identity
By Thomas Krulikowski
Florida Panthers Draft Strategy
Across the next three entry drafts, the Cats have 4 total selections within the first 100 picks. They have 14 in the fourth round or later in those same three years. How can Bill Zito and the scouting department maximize the most impactful NHL talent with that spread of picks?
Luckily, the way teams view the draft has evolved as quickly as the defensive position has recently.
The Panthers would benefit from analyzing what they scout well, where they scout best, and where they can more easily get NHL level talent.
Under Bill Zito, Florida excels at finding defenders in their early to mid 20’s they can spruce up and use for immediate depth. Up front, they find energetic, solid and motivated bottom six players that bolster depth.
Aiming every selection at skilled potential top six forwards or top four defenders may seem like adding too much risk for a team with little draft capital. However, given the lack of first round picks — swinging for the fences might be the best way to replace the dynamic young talent the system is missing.
Go Big (SKILL) or Go Home
Why waste a pick on a role player, or someone with a high floor but low ceiling? Florida can find those players on waiver wire and through free agency. They’ve also done pretty well with UDFA’s across the board too.
Instead Florida should draft players who have high skill but may be available later because they are smaller or their game is still unrefined. Maybe they are from across the ocean (or Russian) and drop down boards because of it. Some players maybe had bad draft years because of team/linemate effects or injuries. It’s easier to trust the front office identifying these players now than under prior front offices.
Whether they’re targeting a pure goal scorer, a heady defender — a mobile skater, a smart puck passer and handler, and an aggressively in the play type of prospect is an ideal foundation to build on. Outside of that, drafting the best player on the board and a late round goalie is a solid start to every draft even if the Panthers don’t have a bevy of picks.
Whatever strategy they choose, it is a huge positive that this iteration of the Florida Panthers, though flawed, can be trusted to have a strategy and have a chance to execute it, even if they traded away most of their picks years in advance.
2023 NHL Draft
The initial ranking often acts as a compilation of the industry’s public rankings, my feelings from initial viewings, and attempt to show more of where players stand now than where they may end up in June.
This year is uncharacteristically strong at the top and above average through the first round. Talent may level out beyond the first 30 or 40 picks but the level of talent is increasing annually that it is still probably a bump over most recent drafts in any round.
As always, I cannot recommend Elite Prospects, Will Scouch (Scouching), and McKeens enough when it comes to prospect coverage, where some of the basis of this analysis comes from.
Here is an excerpt from our Whyhockey 2022 Draft Guide that details what I look for in draft prospects:
I typically value European players and those with professional experience more. I value defensive instincts as much as offensive talent, and excelling in one with foundational skills to build on goes a long way.
I tend to value centers higher and see more value in drafting a defender than a winger when all things are even. I do subscribe to the idea that scorers are harder to find later in the draft than defenders. Overlaying those two principals is not always contradictory.
In recent years I have increased the value of offensive defenseman who are more 4th forwards than defensemen who defend first. I also give additional value lately to competitive players. I’ve tweaked my definition of physical play to focus more on those willing to battle, who are proactive with their stick, and push back while limiting mistakes.
But ultimately, skating, hockey sense, and passing are the foundation I start my search with. Hockey sense for me is built around poise and timing. Knowing when to push pace or jump in plays and when to be more patient. Taking what is given and available, and staying focused to bear down on pucks or checks.
Awareness of how to use the ice or distribute the puck to overcome individual weaknesses. The more intelligent and competitive a prospect, the more I can bet on development ironing out weak spots.
These rankings are always, subject to change, and inside each tier, there is plenty of overlap and the exact numbers become more fluid.
Tier Rank Position Name Hand Birthdate League Height Weight
1 1 C Connor Bedard R JUL05 WHL 5-10 180
2 2 C Adam Fantilli L OCT04 NCAA 6-2 187
2 3 C Leo Carlsson L DEC04 SHL 6-3 194
2 4 RW Matvei Michkov L DEC04 VHL 5-10 160
This year’s top four is not spicy this year, but in a good way. There’s not much to debate. Adam Fantilli may have a few fans for #1, as Leo Carlsson may for #2. But Michkov dropping to five or further down for off ice reasons (his KHL contract) is the most likely change here.
Any of these four would be awesome and franchise changing for any team.
3 5 LW Andrew Cristall L FEB05 WHL 5-10 165
3 6 F Zach Benson L MAY05 WHL 5-10 160
3 7 C Dalibor Dvorsky L JUL05 Allsvenskan 6-1 200
3 8 RW Eduard Sale L MAR05 CZE 6-1 170
3 9 C Brayden Yager R JAN05 WHL 6-0 165
3 10 D Axel Sandin-Pellikka R MAR05 SHL 5-11 181
3 11 C Will Smith R MAR05 USNTDP 6-0 172
For those who aren’t lucky enough to end up in the lottery, the back half of the top 10 is still overflowing with talent and potential franchise changers. Sandin-Pellikka and Sale are naturally WhyHockey favorites but Cristall is fast becoming a favorite of mine too, as evidenced by the ranking.
4 12 F Matthew Wood R FEB05 NCAA 6-3 190
4 13 D Dmitri Simashev L FEB05 MHL 6-4 200
4 14 C/W Otto Stenberg L MAY05 SHL 5-11 181
4 15 C Samuel Honzek L NOV04 WHL 6-3 181
4 16 D Cameron Allen R JAN05 OHL 5-11 190
4 17 D Caden Price L AUG05 WHL 6-1 181
4 18 F Jayden Perron R JAN05 USHL 5-8 160
This tier possesses a strong mix of dynamic potential that projects well to the next level. All of these players have great tools with traits or habits that will aid future development. I like the detail in Simashev’s, Perron’s, and Price’s game. Wood’s shot is well rounded.
5 19 F Oscar Fisker Mølgaard L FEB05 SHL 6-0 163
5 20 LW Colby Barlow L FEB 05 OHL 6-1 187
5 21 F Kasper Halttunen R JUN05 Liiga 6-3 207
5 22 C Ryan Leonard R JAN05 USNDP 5-11 181
5 23 LW Riley Heidt L MAR05 WHL 5-11 179
5 24 C William Whitelaw R FEB05 USHL 5-9 172
5 25 D Theo Lindstein L JAN05 SHL 6-0 176
5 26 D Mikhail Gulyayev L APR05 VHL 5-10 170
5 27 C Noah Dower Nilsson L APR05 SWEU20 6-0 183
5 28 D Lukas Dragicevic R APR05 WHL 6-2 181
This tier includes the players I see first round natural ability that is translating to their play currently. They may have more knocks on their draft profile and may not project the same way in the future, but right now, the talent shines brighter.
6 29 LW Quentin Musty L JUL05 OHL 6-2 205
6 30 RW Koehn Ziemmer R DEC04 WHL 6-0 194
6 31 D Luca Cagnoni L DEC04 WHL 5-10 172
6 32 C Oliver Moore L JAN05 USNDP 5-11 176
6 33HM F Luca Pinelli L APR05 OHL 5-9 161
6 33HM W Alexander Rykov L JUL05 VHL 5-11 170
These are players I am higher on than the much larger list of late first and second round quality prospects on my personal spreadsheet. Musty has the tools, frame, and a birthday advantage. Pinelli is smart, creative, and a bit of a fearless pitbull (which I want to see more of).
Enjoy the World Junior Championship! Happy New Year! Menkää Suomeen! Heja Sverige!