INTRO SPIEL
The Draft is a Birthday party of sorts for the League. Every year around the same time, teams welcome into the league a horde of new talent brimming baby fat in tailored suits. Maybe the metaphor is forced since my birthday falls just after, or in the case of last year on, the draft. Either way your franchise unwraps a few presents and new life is given to the league.
If a birthday party, this year is more akin to a Sweet 16 or a 21st soiree. This is no standard fare year. The talent in the top of the draft rivals 2003 and 2015 and is cause for celebration. Not just deep draft but with the high variance in public opinion in the first round, there is a real chance at chaos and surprise. It only takes one off the board pick or one well-timed trade.
In most draft classes, there is an inherent pull to certain players or push away from others. There is strong opinion and leaning into preference. This class is a bit different. Opinions are much softer when often times Player B or C, or even trading a few spots back, seems equally appealing or promising as nabbing ‘your player.’ Spoilt for choice may be the best way to describe it.
One example of this class being outside the norm is the U.S. National Development Program. For many reasons I tend to be a peg or two below consensus rankings on most of their players annually.
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The forwards from the program are harder to project as they play in a junior circuit below CHL but essentially an All Star team above the rest of the league. Imagine if Team Canada took the best 17, 18, and 19 year olds in the league and played in the QMJHL? How much of racking up points on perimeter play and garbage time translates to NHL 5v5 scoring? Some prospects are harder than others to pinpoint.
For 2023, the Program boasts possibly the most talented and likable top end forward group in my memory. Ryan Leonard, Will Smith, Oliver Moore, and Gabe Perreault are better than average top 10 picks in my estimation, and offer a good diversity of specialized skill.
In many ways the 2023 Draft class was more fun than research. Scouting the games or going over reports or highlights I embodied fan mode more than a prognosticator. Whether it is a testament to the skill progression of the game or the modernizing hockey tactics, the prospects of ‘23 are just entertaining to watch. They keep you more on the edge of your seat than taking notes, that is for sure.
Truthfully with Florida Panthers actually succeeding in a post season, I likely watched less prospect footage than most years. And I am just a fan, giving an opinion and do not have the ability to scout these games live.
What do I look for in a Prospect? More and more, Skating and Passing. By now, every NHL fan realizes how quickly the game is evolving through skating skill. Passing is just as important. As the old saying goes, the puck moves faster than anyone on skates. Players who know when to make passes and what passes to make really tilt the ice. A player like Michigan’s Gavin Brindley is one good example of a prospect whose IQ and passing blend to make the best available pass in transition verse the first available pass.
So skating and passing with the intelligence to use it in a fast paced game. What else? Especially outside the top 25 or First round, Defensive value is big. Some forwards can get away with no defense but any forward who adds defensive value can have more total value than a higher scoring one sided attacker. Only a select few defenders can get away with offense only. They at least need good 1on1 skills and compete. Preventing goals and scoring a few, too, wins you more games than just scoring a few. Scoring goals is hard to do consistently, even Mike Bossy and Alexander Ovechkin went through droughts every season. Playing good defense is much easier to do game to game and requires less puck luck.
Everyone looks for scorers in the draft; that might be the name of the game for the first round for some teams.
In the pretend scenario I am an NHL GM, I likely spend my tenure drafting Centers and Defenders much more readily than wingers or goaltenders. A good majority of NHL wingers were centers in junior, college, or amateur ranks, or were drafted as a Center. It is the most important skater position in hockey. Success is built through the center ice. They defend, they start breakouts, they carry pucks into the zone, they assist, score, win draws. Outside of a goalie, they do the most. I understand why NHL teams place a premium on projectable Centers.
At this current point, Defenders are changing the game of hockey more than anyone else. Maybe it has always been that way. Bobby Orr, Paul Coffey, Nick Lidstrom, Erik Karlsson, Cale Makar. It is important to get the best thoroughbred defenders you can every draft year.
12 forwards on a game roster but 6 defenders. The defender you hit on in the draft will play over 20 minutes a night. Even second pairing defenders make as much an impact on the game and matchups in both ends of a top 6 center. Fluidity of the game means most top end defensemen will travel as much of the ice as Centers and be as depended on for consistent production at Both Ends of the ice.
Finally, it must be mentioned like every year that the CHL is a good development league but professional experience or European academy system is more my speed. NCAA develops well rounded prospects but there is always the chance they walk to free agency and you control less of their development while in school. Something that can happen with a top pick or the 3rd, 4th rounder that blossoms. Switzerland, Czechia, and Germany pro leagues keep improving. Sweden and Finland are still top end. Russia is flawed but they still produce a large portion of talent even if riskier with no KHL transfer agreement in place. Note, Russian factor is not something I let infiltrate my thinking too much with rankings.
RANKINGS
This projects to be a strong bordering on unique draft. There are many good prospects and players not in this ranking. It is inauthentic for me to put out a ranking of 90 or 100+ prospects. If I were a scout for an NHL team that would not be my task. Instead, I try to get 55-65 prospects I feel strong enough about to rank and then later break it down further to guys I’d pound the table for, a smaller favorite list.
There is a lot of close calls, especially in this draft, and I will group them together to denote this. Mainly though, I try to rank by who will be the best player 3 or 5 years out; who will have the better prime. Which makes sense as a measurement to me.
The draft is deep for forwards and apparently goalies (who are voodoo and we all do our best with them) but popular opinion is that it is not as deep for defenders. This is something to note. Typically in the first round a skilled forward would be preferred to draft over a skilled defenseman. Forwards are more likely to hit and are harder to find outside the top 25 or so picks. Defenders tend to develop more after a draft and a 2nd or 3rd round top pair defender is way more common than a later round top line forward.
But if there is a drop off in defensemen this class, something I can agree with, then defenders may not get pushed to the back as much. We know how important defenders are for pushing pace, possession, and scoring these days. Teams may have to step up earlier to get an impact D, trusting this deeper forward group can still be mined later in draft.
Typically I can list 20-25 defenders in a draft class I would be willing to spend a pick on, even if its a 7th rounder. This draft the list sits at 16. For Forwards, the list is usually 40 or 50 names long. This year is 46 counting my one Re-Entry mention. Given that, I would bet mid first through mid second, there could be a run on Defenders, once the can’t miss forwards get taken.
Final note, on Matvei Michkov. My comfortable spot is 4th or 5th overall but as early as 3rd makes sense. If he falls outside the top 10 that is really unfortunate. Obviously there may be real concerns I can’t be made aware of. If a team is being told he doesn’t want to come over for them, you have to adjust and move forward without the risk. However, who knows what rumors are true and what are fodder to manipulate perception or a team’s feelings. On to the Rankings!
# Pos. Name Handedness MONTHYR
Tier 1 - Generational
1 C/W Connor Bedard R JUL05
Everyone is already saying everything there is to say. Best Prospect I’ve ranked in ten or so years I have done ‘guides’ of sorts. Quick processing, dangles/puck placement, release. He's capitalized on the new age teaching of scoring— combination moves, layering skills fluidly to blow away defense and goalies. That’s where his IQ is utilized, stacking moves and release deception into one fluid motion/action. Scoring instinct, good technical ability, good work ethic. Unreal shot. Only knock is height and who cares?
Tier 2 - First Overall in last year’s draft
2 C Adam Fantilli L OCT04
Blend of high end tools and the mindset of a grinder. Motor and positioning will make him an NHL center, and his shot and ability to move pucks through traffic will get him top 6 production. Almost Kariya-like NCAA season. Fantilli gave Bedard a run for his money more than you would think. More certainty than Michkov and almost similar overall ceiling.
3 C Leo Carlsson L DEC04
High end, playmaking two way center. Draws physical contact and attention, sets table for teammates. Manipulates players and space while driving center lane with no fear already in a pro league. Hockey Sense will continue to aid mature game development. Playing for Sweden’s Men team to end season was high compliment well earned.
4 RW Matvei Michkov L DEC04
Electric, deceptive Dangler who scores copious goals. Big Boy shot, too. Would he be higher for teams if his KHL contract was only 1 year instead of 3? Yes. Playmaking and maturity showed on ice more after Sochi move. He's like Max Afinogenov against the Flyers that one playoff game but all the time. One team will get a Top 3 talent outside the top 3 simply for price of patience and faith.
Tier 3 - Possible Top Line Players
5 C Ryan Leonard R JAN05
Industry loves the Tkachuk family comparisons and stating he has that dog in him. But more importantly he has tons of skill, he can play with skill, and he has a translatable, direct style of scoring. That is why he will go early, and not just because of Matthew Tkachuk’s Hart and Smythe campaign season puts a narrative into place. Leonard’s ability to drive inside and find linemates in open ice he just created is shades of Matthew Tkachuk though.
6 C Will Smith R MAR05
Smith is closer to the Top 4 prospects in pure natural talent and ceiling. Puck control, passing, vision is where Smith shines. He has the frame and all his other tools are above average. The concern is whether outside junior hockey his playmaking can translate enough to be a top winger on a team. I am betting his ability to find ice himself or for his teammates translate to the faster NHL game.
7 F Zach Benson L MAY05
Despite the concerns with skating and size most share, Benson has been one of the most productive forwards in this draft class and matches it in defensive effort. Like Smith, Benson has incredible sense for where the vulnerable ice is and works the angles of passing lanes and skating lanes. I may not be as high as others on the WHL star winger but I definitely believe in the prospect even if not a favorite.
8 D Dmitri Simashev L FEB05
I am tempted to rank Simashev first in this tier, and 5th overall. His skating is incredible and effortless. His Size and reach is well utilized in a pretty mature defensive game. Simashev would have been my first choice of defenders last year as well. Simashev will take longer than Reinbacher likely. Larger frame defenders with a lot of small player skill usually do. The offensive game is still raw and blossoming. But the puck skills and overall talent lends credence to it all coming together.
9 D David Reinbacher R OCT04
Reinbacher may not have the heights of Simashev’s ceiling but still boasts top pairing potential and a more mature and rounded game. Reinbacher’s development will be key and a move, a la Seider to Rogle, post draft could make this a no brainer in the top 10 if not top 8. Reinbacher also would have gone before Jiricek or Nemec in last year’s draft for me. His performance in a Men’s pro league is too unique to pass over. Despite how talented the forwards above are, I’d be willing to take Reinbacher in the right fit earlier.
10 C Dalibor Dvorsky L JUL05
Dvorsky posses the talent of the above grouping but, along with Moore and Perreault, has a notch below level of certainty hitting ceiling which creates a bit of separation. Dvorsky was helped by a strong u18s to end his season but also benefits from being a high skilled, heavy shooting center with experience being The Guy in bigger moments. Later birth year, and being familiar with the Swedish pro leagues, Dvorsky is poised to increase value in d+1 year.
11 C Oliver Moore L JAN05
Arguably best skater in class but that billing obscures the other skillsets. Moore has the hands and vision to utilize his speed and pick apart defenses on a rush. He my need more time than the other US Dev forwards but he has the most elite single tool out of the bunch and a good balance of other tools to compliment it. That outweighs a bit more hit-or-miss projection.
12 RW Gabe Perreault L MAY05
Another high skill forward with a bit of hit-or-miss projection. Perreault simply lacks separation speed. However, he tailors his game to work around the flaw, and I think there is progress to be made on the stride. Having an ex NHLer in the family makes it more likely that gets ironed out. How far can high end puck skills and vision take him if the skating stays average at best?
13 D Tom Willander R FEB05
Willander and Sandin Pellikka as clear cut next best defenders with high value floors get them into this tier— even if top pair projection is a bit more lofted and hopeful compared to Simashev or Reinbacher. Unless a team was desperate for defenders, I’d likely take the above forwards first. Willander projects to be able to skate for days and break out pucks repeatedly. He is aggressive and engaging as a puck retriever and wins back possession a fair bit. His offensive tools are not as impressive as Sandin Pellikka but he is ahead of him because they project well still.
14 D Axel Sandin Pellikka R MAR05
One of my favorites in this draft class; it is hard to place behind Willander. Sandin Pellikka excels with transition and getting pucks out of dangerous defensive zones and into dangerous offensive zones. His high end skating, hands, and puck control lend to an evolving game that should round out and make him a threat in all three zones. A better shot and developing better pre scans on dump ins would go a long way to unlocking his full potential. He may never be an above average defender but I believe the defensive acumen grows in time to make him a top 3 defender on a competitive team.
Tier 4 - First Round Talents
15 RW Eduard Sale L MAR05
Sale is a good example of the beginning of this tier. Top end skill with more question marks on translation than tier 3. They still have the skill and ceilings to confidently spend a first round pick on. Sale flashes high end vision, has the mechanics to his shot and stride to be in a playoff top 6. Plays give and go hockey well. I do not see the flags others do that have him just inside or just outside the first round. If anything I worry I ranked a tier low.
16 LW Daniil But R FEB05
Large goal scorer with soft hands. May take time however the potential final product is unique and intriguing. It is one thing to have soft hands at that size, another to pair it with the ability to carry pucks into the zone. He will be fun to watch on counter attacks. You can see why some are prioritizing But on their lists.
17 F Matthew Wood R FEB05
Impressive freshman year at UConn, Wood highlighted his ability to manipulate body contact and spacing off the rush and in zone. Quality finisher but excels at creating for his teammates. Production backs up ranking and helps alleviate skating concerns. As does his adaptability and work rate.
18 LW Andrew Cristall L FEB05
Up and down on my rankings all year. The outright natural tools and offensive output make you wonder if this ranking is too low. But caution over ability to be an inside player at the pro level is worth adding to the draft equation. I see flashes of Danny Briere and a scorers tenacity so it’s realistic he can hit potential.
19 C/W Otto Stenberg L MAY05
Stenberg rose to the occasion and showed to be a strong leader, play driver, and chance finisher at the u18s. Was this enough to show the dynamic elements of his game go beyond his puck skills? My ranking show I think so. Developing with Frolunda sets him up well to mold into a top 6 NHLer whether on the wing or under center eventually.
20 C David Edstrom L FEB05
A riser for me this year. Another Frolunda player but unlike Stenberg he showed towards the end of the year his skill was perhaps underrated by most. He is a deceptive player who can be explosive in timing offensively. The tools with the puck may not be as high end as Stenberg but Edstrom is the more likely center for my money and brings values to a lot of areas on the game while starting to show top 6 production rates. His more North American game may have him go first of the tier.
21 F Oscar Fisker Mølgaard L FEB05
Fisker Mølgaard is a favorite of mine with how layered his game is already. How adaptive and detailed he is as a player. There is more levels to his offensive game and time spent in SHL will help bring those to forefront as he takes more risks and gains confidence.
22 C Nate Danielson R SEP04
Danielson seems to be a favorite of the industry for a lot of the same reasons Stenberg, Edstrom, and Fisker Mølgaard are endeared to me. He blends detail and dependability with an offensive motor that is projectable, and a rounded game that opens more roster opportunities for players. Danielson has speed but may need to find further offensive moves outside junior.
23 C Anton Wahlberg L JUL05
A late birth month prospect that projects better than their draft year stats. Wahlberg is still coming into his frame and skillset. The Malmo forward should surprise many next year with his jump in offensive output. Wahlberg’s shot is sneaky good.
24 LW Quentin Musty L JUL05
Speaking of sneaky good shot and late birth month, enter Quentin Musty. Lately Musty has reminded me of Carter Verhaeghe in shot release. Musty has a smooth swing and shooting motion that constantly catches goalies by surprise. Their games outside of that differ. Musty still leans playmaking and I respect his ability to sling passes through traffic.
25 F Gavin Brindley R OCT04
Brindley and the rest of this tier have a separation in skillset. As much as Sawchyn may have a great set of hands, Molendyk a sick set of wheels, and Brindley a motor that doesn’t quit there is just that less other parts to their game. Or maybe better put, less refined other aspects to their game. Brindley is a prospect I love because he just plays the friggin’ game. He is willing to play it any which way and seems to succeed and have fun doing it — he’s all over the ice and energetic like a happy kid anyway. Transition specialist.
26 C Gracyn Sawchyn R JAN05
Sawchyn is a player I wish I had more views this year. Or maybe I wanted to be more satisfied with his playoff matches. How high end are his offensive skills? Can he add more complex elements to his game to consistently score in NHL? His motor and hands are noteworthy. I like his timing on passing and I think theres room to grow on his shot. I just may be more hesitant than some to pull trigger inside the top 25.
27 D Theo Lindstein L JAN05
A defender who has a wide range of opinion on where he should go. Lindstein is a bit simple and direct for scouts. Flashier defenders typically go in the first. But the value in a defender who is quick and consistent in killing plays and quick and smart moving pucks is more than a late first so this ranking is still good value. Should get more offensive opportunities in the relegated Allsvenskan next season.
28 D Tanner Molendyk L FEB04
Molendyk has strengths that are easy to appreciate. He can skate out pucks and skate out of trouble frequently. He changes pace and direction, keeping possession for his team. He projects to do so even better as he adds strength and the restraint that comes from development. That single high end tool of skating makes him the highest ceiling defender left at this point. Development will be key but as far as foundation for a modern defender, you get a lot of promise to work with with Molendyk.
29 LW Colby Barlow L FEB05
Barlow may not be my cup of tea but I get the appeal. He can shot a hockey puck and has the innate ability to fight through traffic or net front battles and still make skilled finishes. You know the work rate and forechecking will be at an NHL level. You will get an NHLer. I’d be happy with the pick in second half of the first but I seem to be not as much of a fan of the prospect as most people.
Tier 5 - Prospects I Like
30 F Jayden Perron R JAN05
Puck skills and defensive value. This is a good pick for the type of teams that pick at the end of the first round.
31 D Oliver Bonk R JAN05
Radek Bonk was cool and Oliver seems to carry similar persona with a projection-able blue line game.
32 C Samuel Honzek L NOV04
Size, Speed, and Smarts. When watching highlights I think he could go a tier higher but within flow of game have hesitation.
33 C Brayden Yager R JAN05
Sharp shooter but questions on output.
34 C Carey Terrance L MAY05
A sleeper pick for me. Terrance looked the part of a Top 6 center with good mobility and puck skills at u18s.
35 C/LW Felix Nilsson L JUN05
Nilsson is a passer who makes other players more threatening.
36 C Noah Dower Nilsson L APR05
Higher on Dower Nilsson than most. Production is there. The IQ and use of his well rounded tool kit to be a triple threat impresses me even if skills are more raw.
37 D Mikhail Gulyayev L APR05
Skating that rivals Simashev and Molendyk in areas. Gulyayev is just more one dimensional than them. Skating is the start and end of his game. Uncertainty around play along boards and get to interior at pro level dampens hype of his speed.
38 C William Whitelaw R FEB05
I liked Youngstown team this season and Whitelaw was a big time finisher for the squad. He showed a hunger and motor that leads to carving out roles if 30 goals isn’t in his future.
39 D Lukas Dragicevic R APR05
Dragicevic plays as a forward who leverages the ice in front of him that playing from the back affords. I have a lot of questions and concerns but in today’s NHL you will fall behind if you do not take shots on these type of defenders in the right spot. Early day 2 would be that spot for me.
40 C Bradly Nadeau R MAY05
Nadeau has a shot and a good foundation I am willing to make an exception to concerns around drafting minor junior players Top 50.
41 RW Ethan Gauthier R JAN05
Gauthier has the makeup of a good support player to a strong duo on a Top 9 line.
42 LW Riley Heidt L MAR05
Heidt should benefit from the Tkachuk affect. His playmaking off contact is pretty impressive.
43 D Albert Wikman L MAR05
Wikman is mobile play killer who has the tools to and recent flashes of contributing with the puck.
44 C Martin Misiak L SEP04
Grew on me during Youngstown USHL championship run. He can carve out an NHL role but with the right development it should be top 9.
45 D Beau Akey R FEB05
Akey’s activation and up-ice play matches the direction the NHL is going. Tools to bet on.
46 D Caden Price L AUG05
A very late birth day, Price has a lot of potential in frame and skillset. Dependable first pass. Defenders take a while and he should feature on Team Canada enough to garner good development.
47 G Michael Hrabal L JAN05
Recently goalies have gone earlier than I’d prefer. This year I’ll expect that to continue. Hrabal has a unique blend of size and skill that sets him apart from rest of the crowd. Around 50th overall is where I’d be comfortable selecting a goalie this year (who again are voodo).
Tier 6 - Mid Rounds
48 F Kasper Halttunen R JUN05
Shooter with some grind.
49 D Aram Minnetian R MAR05
Minnetian utilizes his skating to get interior and make decisive plays to his forwards.
50 LW Jesse Nurmi L MAR05
Skilled, exciting forward with longer and windier road to NHL.
51 W/C Timur Mukhanov R JUN05
Another skilled scorer held back by size and Russia factor.
52 D Maxim Strbak R APR05
Aggressive, engaged, wants to drive play. Fan of development path to Michigan State.
53 G Yegor Zavragin L AUG05
Checks most of the boxes I have. Takes up a lot of the net, strong glove and works hard to control rebounds and fight through screens.
54 F Luca Pinelli L APR05
Waterbug playmaker with a good defensive stick.
55 RW Nick Lardis L JUL05
Always good sign when prospect has nose for garbage goals. Can make a career off of it.
56 D Andrew Gibson R FEB05
Always a Soo defender to like. U18 performance flashed top 4 potential.
57 RW Koehn Ziemmer R DEC04
Ziemmer scores in many ways. I wish he was better with the puck further away from net.
58 C Zeb Forsfjäll L JAN05
Small but proficient.
59 W Alexander Rykov L JUL05
Deceptive and slippery, just needs to find the net more.
60 W Alex Ciernik L OCT04
Looks like an NHLer but what is his role? Team fit is huge, as he likes to feed off linemates.
61 D Luca Cagnoni L DEC04
Skating skill and offensive potential masks a lot of flaws. Cagnoni likely requires selection earlier than compared to safer defenders without the offensive upside.
62 G Jacob Fowler L NOV04
A goalie scouts have touted for sense and compete. Movement and frame good foundation. Another Youngstown Phantom. Sure, I’d take him.
Tier 7 - Honorable Mentions
63 F Isac Hedqvist L MAR05
64 F Roman Kantserov L SEP04
65 F Yegor Sidorov L JUN04 (Re-entry)
66 G Noa Vali L APR05
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