State of Affairs
I wrote this under the Roster Freeze for Holiday Break December 2022. Florida sat 7 points out of the last Division spot back to Tampa. They are 8 points back of the Islanders for the last Wildcard spot but have to jump multiple teams who hold games in hand on Florida.
Expectations for this team should, and are, playoffs. But the reality has not matched.
Many fans and commentators have already accepted the False Premise that No Matter What Bill Zito did, Florida was destined to be Outside the Playoffs and struggle mightily.
The arguments sound smart and sensible. Florida got better than deserved shooting and save percentages last season. These would obviously regress.
That simply because it would be difficult to free large sums of money in the offseason or work around Salary Cap hurdles, it would be impossible to improve the dang good core roster enough to be a playoff squad.
It is sheepish to believe this. It feels like the hundredth time on a Whyhockey medium I have listed the many paths and options Zito had, and show how from my outsider perspective, Florida Front Office accepted a future without playoffs in July.
Florida broke offensive records and team win records last season. They had stunning comebacks with the confidence they built. No one expected them to hang onto the President’s trophy or win the Division this year.
But this is a Team that should compete for 3rd in the Division and have the odds for holding onto a Wild Card spot. The roster is better than the teams around them.
Behind the Bench
Luckily, the litany of reasons Paul Maurice was a bad hire continue to be posted daily by many others so we can save space and time there. One thing I want to point out, and lay at Zito’s feet, is that he hired a coach specifically to fit a team and roster he then gutted a month later at first chance.
Questioning Maurice’s fit for a team taking a step back and changing their direction at the Core level is expected given the early returns.
If this was a step back year, would it not be a good year to grow with Brunette? We do not get to plan the order of events, I guess.
My biggest complaints to date with Maurice are the lack of energy in the team, the personnel choices sure, but mainly the system changes that lead to centers effectively playing as ‘partner’ to the strong side D as the Weak side D takes more center paths on breakouts. This is an extreme leaning into an area that was exposed in playoffs.
Forwards are playing defense, defenders flying zone, and the team structure is easy to fracture and get chasing. The saddling of Staals to the franchise is largely Maurice’s doing and his use of them is a net negative.
New coach hires Bruce Cassidy in Vegas, Pete Deboer in Dallas, Rick Bowness in Winnipeg, and Jim Montgomery in Boston hit the ground running and are banking points for divisional spots. The hiring process needs scrutiny.
Cap Space Hurdles are not Blockers for All Opportunity!
Do not cry for the cap space not there. Look at the cap space Zito did have.
Beyond using $1.5 million of precious cap space on the Staals (plus losing an asset in Rudolfs Balcers) we can question Zito’s decision to not buy out Patric Hornqvist during the first buyout window. The Florida Front Office knew they needed any space they could materialize.
The cap space room not gained by Zito hurts more than the small cap hit penalty that would have been applied to next season if Zito bought out the winger. Next season has no cap space issues and can withstand a minor cap penalty.
Is playing shorthanded multiple games so early into the season worth the leadership of Hornqvist? Maurice’s use and the player's performance show it was not.
Colin White and Nick Cousins have been fine for Florida. Unfortunately, having neutralizing and grindy bottom six wingers for playoff depth has no value if you fail to make the playoffs.
That is 3.8million in cap dollars between the four spots of Staals, Cousins, and White. Even without that buyout help Florida could have budgeted the money it did spend differently.
Replacing EStaal, White, and Cousins with Balcers, Tierney, and Heponiemi (or Dalpe for those who prefer) nets an extra $800k in cap space. That is an extra skater for the Panther’s roster. Is there really any drop off either?
Options Existed
That extra body has a wide range of possibilities but all of them yield value.
Florida does not have to play games shorthanded and can better prevent injuries rotating a skater in more.
If added to the Marc Staal cap hit, the extra $800k can help net a $1.5m cap hit defender.
After 33 games, White and Cousin’s while not being bad, have not played so well I would knowingly give up roster flexibility, a full roster, or a chance to get a better defenseman. Nothing personal to them.
The best use of the cap space may have been moving Denisenko (or assets) for a defender of a similar age, like Victor Soderstrom, who would have benefited from training camp and at this point in time would be a better option for elevating their game than Matt Kiersted.
Again, Zito had options.
How possible is it that Zito could find use with $800k cap space that has a noticeable impact on the ice? Forsling, Verhaeghe, Luostrainen, Mahura, Lomberg were all brought in at one million or under. A total under both Nick Cousins’ and Colin White’s cap hits.
Zito did not have to re-sign Spencer Knight before the season. Zito did not have to hire Maurice as coach. Zito did not have to replace Weegar with only Marc Staal heading into training camp. Zito did not have to pump the brakes in July.
These were reactions and choices that are more similar to past Florida General Managers than the Bill Zito that started his tenure with Florida making all the smart moves.
Agency must be applied to how Florida chooses to operate. There should be questions asked of Zito and expectations he improves this team in short order.
Is it just that much harder for GMs to get over the hump? Does ownership still step in too much after big seasons or in decisions? Or are these just bad moves coming home to roost?