The Wrong Defender
Despite coming to a different decision and running with the coaching staff as-is, GM Zito agreed with the assessment that Panthers needed to target Defenders prior to last season’s playoff run.
Injuries to Ekblad are unfortunately expected and Florida was in need of some Defensive IQ. Someone who would bring poise, calm, and structure to the position.
The lack of matriculating and promising defensive prospects the last handful of years left an obvious hole on a pretty high end roster.
Zito acquired three defenseman during March he defined by their experience, playoff style grind, and defensive focus. Petteri Lindbohm was signed on the first, after Finland’s Jokerit left the KHL season. Then three weeks later, and three days post-Chiarot, Florida moved for a sixth round pick for Robert Hagg. One could surmise they already soured on Lindbohm.
Lindbohm did not play much or show much but would be a move I do again since it was free. I’d just hope to get more out of it. Hagg, relative to his price and ultimately what Chiarot produced, looks like the best money spent defensively at the deadline, if forced to pick.
The true move to bolster the blue line was obviously Chiarot.
Florida opened the defensive market with their staggering rental payment for Ben Chiarot. The unprotected first round pick in 2023 is damning. Only months later Zito was seeding the likelihood of missing the playoffs.
If getting protections on a first is enough to sink that particular deal. Fine. Sink it. It’s Ben Chiarot, not Niklas Hjalmarsson. Even just top 3 or 5 protected goes a long way.
Brunette, the coach Zito kept, didn’t even want to use Chiarot when the going got tough.
Zito’s main reason for being so comfortable with the zealous payment to obtain Chiarot, compared to the alternative options, was his ability to eat minutes and handle the playoffs.
Even at the time I wondered why not go for Brent Kulak or Josh Manson, who have been more than rentals and positively impacted their clubs for less assets.
Chiarot’s Time on Ice in the playoffs by game, rounded to nearest minute was: 15 minutes, 16 minutes, 15 minutes, 17 minutes, 20 minutes, 22 minutes, 17 minutes, 19 minutes, 18 minutes, 14 minutes. The 22 minute game being the final game against the Capitals that went to Overtime.
An average of 17.3 minutes per night. That is all situations minutes for a minus-1 and an assist.
For context prior to last season, Chiarot’s last game under twenty minutes (rounded in same way as above) was in the August playoff bubble 2020 playing against Philadelphia, 25 playoff games ago.
What was the point of this trade? Zito had more room for interpretation of the staff and locker room on the coaching decision. The Chiarot move was bad on it’s face and shown by the data.
Unnecessary and Unprotected Risk
If things go sideways – a certain possibility given they are in a dog fight with five or six teams for one wildcard spot– Zito’s inability to guarantee some lottery ball protection could rob the franchise of an elite level talent in a draft with top headliners drawing near generational level praise.
Setting aside the continued worries about Florida’s inability to identify top talent defenders with defensive acumen; setting aside the other defensive options Zito could have gotten, I want to explain why the loss of the first rounder bugs me for other reasons.
What could Zito do in-season with the first in his pocket to walk across this cap tight rope?
This is same good faith argument I made at the time the rumors were rampant prior to Chiarot trade becoming official.
Spend first rounders. Go for it. Add defenders. But do not pay handsomely for bad defenders. Zito made an unforced error.
This was a move that did not need to be made where one could argue a coaching change was needed. The ill effects of this misstep is continuing to be felt and amplified by Zito’s almost insistence Florida take a step back this season.
In the next part we will discuss the current state of affairs and some of the things Zito could have done to give better odds of playoffs this season.
However, it is important that when evaluating Zito’s moves we are honest about this one, the disagreement with it at the time, and it’s cascading impact since.
Moving forward Florida’s front office must not shy away from going after defenders, or ponying up for the good ones. They just have to be smarter about it and target better defensemen. They clearly can at points considering Forsling, Montour, and Mahura. Too often to just be luck, right?