Avenues Ahead
Frustration is at an all time high. However, Florida’s ownership pushing for, or the front office chasing, overreaction would be folly.
The worst outcome of the season is Florida missing the playoffs and Montreal winning the first overall or even any of the top three pick lotteries with Florida’s unprotected first rounder.
Even if that were to happen, the goal remains the same – to win as much as possible with the core of Barkov and Tkachuk. Dismantling the team only leads to more bad hockey in the future.
The Panthers need to soberly move forward and address the missing parts they were unable to this past offseason.
The core (listed in the previous part) remains strong and likable. The issue is a steady and sustainable vision. Florida needs to build to the strengths of their core and find a coach and structure that fits the players.
System Changes
It is unlikely the organization fires Paul Maurice this season. It is still possible despite poor performance the ownership or management keep him to start next season. Hopefully it does not get there.
Another coach for Barkov is not ideal but neither is keeping the wrong hire.
There is room for improvement and better results whomever is the coach.
The biggest issues with Maurice, beyond personnel decisions we disagree on, is the severity of the changes to the system. For whatever reason there was a change of plan between Maurice’s hire and now. The small tweaks are not so small after all. What caused the change and the evaporation of offensive creativity and confidence?
In Part 3, we mentioned a few issues that we can expand here.
What causes the lack of energy? Is it constantly playing shorthanded with the injuries and illnesses? Does intentionally playing a top heavy lineup with a heavy chip and chase style contribute to this? Maurice wanted to play on the margins but instead of wins Florida gets demoralizing losses.
Eight of their last ten wins are by three or more goals. Taking away the speed and higher score rate of the rush game and purposefully playing close is yet to yield positive results.
One of the easiest and most impactful X and O changes the coach could make involves the use of centers and defenders retrieving pucks and breaking them out.
Rather than having the defensive pair work as a tandem, Maurice’s Panthers seemingly split the ice in half with the center providing the support to whichever is the strong side defender at the time.
This is a lot of work on the centers and possibly another reason for lack of energy in their games.
On breakouts, the centers are usually retrieving pucks or making that first up ice pass. The weak side, or other, defender is usually moving up ice occupying lanes a center does.
Florida would be served better to have defenders work together to break out pucks to the centers gaining speed. Florida’s centers are much more efficient at puck management, reading defenders and controlling zone entries. That is who you want making the decisions over the blue line and passing to shooters.
Conversely, when breakouts are broken up Florida is suddenly out of position and the center and back checking defenseman both engage in “hero ball” that leads to chasing pucks and sustained pressure by opposition.
Defenders should be the ones who excel turning back and retrieving pucks. If that is not the case, to the point that Centers need to change their usage to take that responsibility, the team needs new defender personnel.
Let the defenders stay in position on the breakout and activate into play as second wave options on the rush through neutral zone or off the blue line in offensive zone cycles to break opposition’s defensive structure.
Utilize the new age five man unit offensive hockey—but do it smart and efficiently. Not as you would in an All Star game. Carolina is one of a few team examples that show it is possible to have structure and mobility.
The Special Teams are another issue where improvements are possible.
Florida’s PK ineffectiveness comes from failures to clear the puck or defensemen pulled too far from the PK structure usually puck watching. They need a less outdated system and defensemen who are more disciplined. The forwards and goalie do most of the heavy lifting shorthanded.
Discipline is a re-occurring issue. Find smarter players or have more accountability behind the bench.
For the powerplay, moving Ekblad to the second unit would be a great start. Montour is the QB, right handed, can shoot, and unlike Ek, is not overcoming some injury frustrations still plaguing the mental aspect of his game. For Ekblad and Powerplay unit 1, try again next year.
Powerplay suffers from same lack of discipline and a lack of movement to boot. They need to work the puck down low and through the lower home plate and crease area more regularly. They need less around the horn to stationary bodies.
Get the puck in Barkov and Tkachuk’s hands more. Move players through the box and middle of the PK unit. Make passes in motion. Work on a few simple and stackable plays to gain chemistry and precision. Get a few confidence goals and evolve from there.
The Man Advantage would benefit from the originality and creativity that is missing from Florida’s coaching staff. Also, a cure all for most teams, a lethal sniper, does not exist on the Panthers’ roster.
Art of Scoring
Before we get to that— Florida needs to hire a Shooting/Scoring coach (whatever they want to title it). They currently have Maxim Ivanov as a skills coach. I am not advocating for a change to be made. However, there is clearly a gap with scoring skill verse their other skills Ivanov seems to be good at bringing out. Coaches are not part of salary cap, they can hire a specialist to help them maximize their shooting skill.
Hire Scott Bjugstad. You know Scott Bjugstad as uncle of former Panther Nick Bjugstad. He is a former NHLer and Olympian, who became a shooting instructor as well as a consultant for Easton while they were still the Zenith of one piece sticks. Now he works for CCM, the new crown wearer for my gear money.
Bjugstad created the current trendy retail p28 curve. The curve was developed to make it easier and quicker for modern shooters to get off shots. The gear and players are so advanced. Florida Panthers need to hire someone who thinks progressively like this. Someone who is developing techniques and coaching for the sole purpose of scoring more goals.
Bjugstad is far from the only former pro or skills coach out there who can fill this role.
Missing Pieces
Florida lacks finishing skill. The failure to extend leads or finish their league leading Expected Goals is backbreaking.
Verhaeghe and Tkachuk are volume scorers. Barkov is arguably their best shooter but is also their best playmaker and pass first. Rather than changing Barkov’s style, they should look into a sniper.
For what it’s worth Barkov is still good for a 30-40 goal pace, like Tkachuk.
Anthony Duclair and Sam Reinhart are the other 30 goal talents on the team. Are they enough finishing skill to carry the team further? Are they secondary guys that require help from a 40+ scorer? Does one of them need to be upgraded?
Florida also has Sam Bennett as a chip to improve. He can play that playoff style, has chemistry with Tkachuk, and it never hurts to have another center. But for those same reasons, he may be the best piece to get that needed top line sniper.
Barkov, Lundell, Luostrainen likely could handle duties without Bennett, especially supplied with a higher finishing and more lethal wing group.
Behind finishing, the other missing ingredient noticeable when assessing the core Panthers, is the lack of a top four, twenty minute plus defender. A defender whose strengths are defensive IQ and awareness.
Ekblad and Montour are the gifted right side defenders who excel in Florida’s defensive up-ice system. They have great natural abilities and can step up to finish plays and occasionally make a big hit. But they do not always make the right read, or are often recovering from pushing the envelope the other way.
Forsling has been a rock for the Cats. The team desperately needs a defender equal or better than him to challenge for a cup. The prospects are likely depth options for the immediate future. As much as we hope a diamond is in that rough a la Weegar.
Forsling and Montour have a real chemistry and are a great pairing to roll out. Forsling could find that spark with Ekblad but I would stop trying to jam square pegs in round holes and just fix the underlying issue — they need another skilled defender who plays the left side.
A mobile left side defender who is not prone to defensive mistakes and moves the puck well is the general makeup of Ekbad’s partner. Florida does not have a true candidate for that position.
Making Good
Florida possesses the scouts that identify and bring in pro level defenders. How far further out of the picture would Florida be without Anaheim putting Mahura on waivers?
The skill of these pro scouts must be leveraged by altering their target profile. Keep the mobility, passing, and ability to take physical play. Add more defensive bent and awareness. And rather than only look for bottom pair or upswing shots, look for a higher end defenseman.
A difficult but necessary task for any team serious about winning a Stanley Cup.
Vinny Viola, Bill Zito, Sasha Barkov, and Matthew Tkachuk can win in South Florida.
The Potential and the Promise is not fraudulent. In the Modern NHL most teams have cap issues and most teams have quality pieces.
Bill Zito just needs to pull it all together. Who is the coach to push the right tactical and emotional buttons? Who can provide the finishing needed to win games? Who can provide the defense needed to win a championship?
A lot of Florida Panthers fans are teetering. The actions over the next year will determine a lot of their fates and Florida’s revenue. May this next twelve months bring better decision making than the last twelve months.
Go Panthers.
Thanks for reading any of these cathartic blogs.